Dieter Zetsche
CEO of Daimler Benz
Alvin Toffler
Future Shock 1970
"too much change in too short a period of time".
The illiterate of the 21st century
"The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn."
Yogi Berra
The future ain’t what it used to be.
THE FUTURE
IS HERE
Dieter Zetsche
Zetsche’s Predictions
their [Daimler Benz] competitors are no longer other car companies, but Tesla (obviously), and now, Google, Apple, Amazon 'et al'
in the next 5-10 years
Software will disrupt most traditional industries
just a software tool
Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world.
Airbnb
Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.
AI
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.
Don’t go to law school
In the U.S., young lawyers already can't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.
Specialists Only
So, if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.
Diagnosis
Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than human nurses
You look familiar
Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans
Smarty Pants
. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.
Autonomous cars
In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination.
Autonomous cars
You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and you can be productive while driving.
Our kids will never get a driver's license and will never own a car.
Car Usage
will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks.
Auto Accidents
1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles (100,000 km),
with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million miles (10 million km). That will save a million lives each year.
a computer on wheels.
Most car companies will probably go bankrupt. Traditional car companies will try the traditional approach and try to build a better car,
while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will take the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.
terrified of Tesla
Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi are completely terrified of Tesla.
Auto Insurance companies
will have massive trouble because without accidents, car insurance will become much cheaper. Their car insurance business model will slowly disappear.
Real estate will change
. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.
(TELECOMMUTING)
Electric cars
Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity.
Cheap Electricity
Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, and now you can now see the burgeoning impact.
solar energy
Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can't last. Technology will take care of that strategy.
abundant water
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kwh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents).
We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water.
Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
Health innovations
The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample, and you can breath into it.
Access to medical analysis
It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free.
3D Printing
The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes.
Airplane Parts
Some common spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to keep in the past.
Print your own shoes
At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoes at home.
6-story office building
In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-story office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.
Has to work with your phone
If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.
Work
70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.
Agriculture
There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields.
Aeroponics and Hydroponics
will need much less water.
Petri dish veal
The first Petri dish that produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore.
Cultured Meat
meat grown in cell culture instead of inside animals.[1] It is a form of cellular agriculture. Cultured meat is produced using many of the same tissue engineering techniques traditionally used in regenerative medicine.[2]
Cultured Meat
The first cultured beef burger patty, created by Dr. Mark Post at Maastricht University, was eaten at a demonstration for the press in London in August 2013.[3] In part due to technical challenges associated with scaling and cost-reduction, cultured meat has not yet been commercialized.
In addition, it has yet to be seen whether consumers will accept cultured meat as meat.
Fried Bugs?
There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).
moodies
There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you're in.
By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions, if you are lying.
Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they're telling the truth and when they're not.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency ... Of the world!
Longevity
: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So, we all might live for a long time, probably way more than 100.
Education
The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education.
Khan academy
Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child needs to learn at school in First World countries. There have already been releases of software in Indonesia and soon there will be releases in Arabic, Swahili, and Chinese this summer.
I can see enormous potential if we give the English app for free, so that children in Africa and everywhere else can become fluent in English. And that could happen within half a year.
Khan Academy
The organization started in 2004 when Salman Khan tutored one of his cousins on the Internet using a service called Yahoo! Doodle Images. After a while, Khan's other cousins began to use his tutoring service.
Because of the demand, Khan decided to make his videos watchable on the Internet, so he published his content on YouTube
Khan Academy
Khan Academy is a non-profit[6] educational organization created in 2006 by educator Salman Khan with a goal of creating a set of online tools that help educate students.[7] The organization produces short lectures in the form of YouTube videos.[8] Its website also includes supplementary practice exercises and materials for educators.
Kahn Academy
All resources are available to users of the website. The website and its content are provided mainly in English, but are also available in other languages,
That’s all, folks!
CEO of Daimler Benz
Alvin Toffler
Future Shock 1970
"too much change in too short a period of time".
The illiterate of the 21st century
"The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn."
Yogi Berra
The future ain’t what it used to be.
THE FUTURE
IS HERE
Dieter Zetsche
Zetsche’s Predictions
their [Daimler Benz] competitors are no longer other car companies, but Tesla (obviously), and now, Google, Apple, Amazon 'et al'
in the next 5-10 years
Software will disrupt most traditional industries
just a software tool
Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world.
Airbnb
Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.
AI
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.
Don’t go to law school
In the U.S., young lawyers already can't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.
Specialists Only
So, if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.
Diagnosis
Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than human nurses
You look familiar
Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans
Smarty Pants
. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.
Autonomous cars
In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination.
Autonomous cars
You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and you can be productive while driving.
Our kids will never get a driver's license and will never own a car.
Car Usage
will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks.
Auto Accidents
1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles (100,000 km),
with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million miles (10 million km). That will save a million lives each year.
a computer on wheels.
Most car companies will probably go bankrupt. Traditional car companies will try the traditional approach and try to build a better car,
while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will take the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.
terrified of Tesla
Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi are completely terrified of Tesla.
Auto Insurance companies
will have massive trouble because without accidents, car insurance will become much cheaper. Their car insurance business model will slowly disappear.
Real estate will change
. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.
(TELECOMMUTING)
Electric cars
Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity.
Cheap Electricity
Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, and now you can now see the burgeoning impact.
solar energy
Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can't last. Technology will take care of that strategy.
abundant water
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kwh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents).
We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water.
Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
Health innovations
The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample, and you can breath into it.
Access to medical analysis
It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free.
3D Printing
The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes.
Airplane Parts
Some common spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to keep in the past.
Print your own shoes
At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoes at home.
6-story office building
In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-story office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.
Has to work with your phone
If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.
Work
70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.
Agriculture
There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields.
Aeroponics and Hydroponics
will need much less water.
Petri dish veal
The first Petri dish that produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore.
Cultured Meat
meat grown in cell culture instead of inside animals.[1] It is a form of cellular agriculture. Cultured meat is produced using many of the same tissue engineering techniques traditionally used in regenerative medicine.[2]
Cultured Meat
The first cultured beef burger patty, created by Dr. Mark Post at Maastricht University, was eaten at a demonstration for the press in London in August 2013.[3] In part due to technical challenges associated with scaling and cost-reduction, cultured meat has not yet been commercialized.
In addition, it has yet to be seen whether consumers will accept cultured meat as meat.
Fried Bugs?
There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).
moodies
There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you're in.
By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions, if you are lying.
Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they're telling the truth and when they're not.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency ... Of the world!
Longevity
: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So, we all might live for a long time, probably way more than 100.
Education
The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education.
Khan academy
Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child needs to learn at school in First World countries. There have already been releases of software in Indonesia and soon there will be releases in Arabic, Swahili, and Chinese this summer.
I can see enormous potential if we give the English app for free, so that children in Africa and everywhere else can become fluent in English. And that could happen within half a year.
Khan Academy
The organization started in 2004 when Salman Khan tutored one of his cousins on the Internet using a service called Yahoo! Doodle Images. After a while, Khan's other cousins began to use his tutoring service.
Because of the demand, Khan decided to make his videos watchable on the Internet, so he published his content on YouTube
Khan Academy
Khan Academy is a non-profit[6] educational organization created in 2006 by educator Salman Khan with a goal of creating a set of online tools that help educate students.[7] The organization produces short lectures in the form of YouTube videos.[8] Its website also includes supplementary practice exercises and materials for educators.
Kahn Academy
All resources are available to users of the website. The website and its content are provided mainly in English, but are also available in other languages,
That’s all, folks!
